Japan opposition crushes LDP in historic election

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's opposition was headed for a historic victory in an election Sunday, exit polls showed, a win that would oust the long-ruling conservative party and give the untested Democrats the job of reviving a weak economy.

Exit polls by private broadcasters showed the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) could win two thirds of seats in parliament's powerful 480-member lower house.

That matched opinion polls that had forecast a huge loss for Prime Minister Taro Aso's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). A senior LDP official acknowledged the extent of the drubbing, saying the party was headed for a "historic defeat."

"The predictions by the media were shocking. We had doubts, but now I think they are becoming a reality," said Yoshihide Suga, deputy chairman of the LDP's Election Strategy Council.

A Democratic Party win would end a half-century of almost unbroken rule by the LDP and break a deadlock in parliament, ushering in a government pledging cash for consumers, a cut in wasteful spending and less power for bureaucrats.

It would unravel a three-way partnership between the LDP, big business and bureaucrats that turned Japan into an economic juggernaut after the country's defeat in World War Two. That strategy foundered when Japan's "bubble" economy burst in the late 1980s and growth has stagnated since.

"This is about the end of the post-war political system in Japan," said Gerry Curtis, a Japanese expert at Columbia University.

"It is the only time any party other than the LDP has won a majority in the lower house of the Diet (parliament). It marks the end of one long era, and the beginning of another one about which there is a lot of uncertainty."

Financial markets have sought an end to the stalemate in parliament, where the Democrats and their allies control the less powerful upper chamber and can delay bills, but bond yields may rise if a new government increases spending.

LDP EMASCULATED

Most exit polls showed the LDP wining just over 100 seats, down from 300. Its partner, the New Komeito Party, was expected to win around 20 seats. The Democratic Party had just 115 seats in the last lower house.

"I'm happy, but at the same time I'm feeling a sense of big responsibility," Yoshihiko Noda, the Democrats' deputy secretary- general, told TBS television.

Democratic Party leader Yukio Hatoyama, 62, the wealthy grandson of a former prime minister, spoke in sweeping terms on Saturday when he said the election would change Japanese history.

He often invoked the word change during the campaign, a theme that came up time and again in interviews with voters Sunday. Many were prepared to give the Democrats a chance even if they were unsure the party would pull Japan out of its worst recession in 60 years.

"I don't like what's going on now in this country. Things have to change," said Kazuya Tsuda, a 78-year-old retired doctor in Tokyo who voted for the Democratic Party.
The Democrats have pledged to refocus spending on households with child allowances and aid for farmers while taking control of policy from bureaucrats, often blamed for Japan's failure to tackle problems such as a creaking pension system.

The party wants to forge a diplomatic stance more independent of the United States and build better ties with Asia, often strained by bitter wartime memories.

"(The Democrats) are saying that they will escape from bureaucratic dominance of politics, but they must also skillfully use bureaucrats to implement their policies," said Norihiko Narita, a professor at Surugadai University near Tokyo. "How to cooperate with bureaucrats will be a very important point."

Analysts worry spending plans by the Democrats, a mix of former LDP members, ex-Socialists and younger conservatives founded in 1998, will inflate Japan's massive public debt and push up government bond yields.

The party has vowed not to raise the 5 percent sales tax for four years while it focuses on cutting wasteful spending and tackling problems such as a shrinking and greying population.

Japan is aging more quickly than any other rich country, inflating social security costs. More than a quarter of Japanese will be 65 or older by 2015.

The economy returned to growth in the second quarter, mostly because of short-term stimulus around the world, but the jobless rate rose to a record 5.7 percent in July..

Media: Opposition wins landslide in Japan election

TOKYO (AP) - Japan's ruling conservative party suffered a crushing defeat in elections Sunday as voters overwhelmingly cast their ballots in favor of a left-of-center opposition camp that has promised to rebuild the economy and breathe new life into the country after 54 years of virtual one-party rule, media projections said.

The opposition Democratic Party of Japan was set to win 300 of the 480 seats in the lower house of parliament, ousting the Liberal Democrats, who have governed Japan for all but 11 months since 1955, according to projections by all major Japanese TV networks.

The vote was seen as a barometer of frustrations over Japan's worst economic slump since World War II and a loss of confidence in the ruling Liberal Democrats' ability to tackle tough problems such as the rising national debt and rapidly aging population.

National broadcaster NHK, using projections based on exit polls of roughly 400,000 voters, said the Democratic Party was set to win 300 seats and the Liberal Democrats only about 100. Official results were expected early Monday.
As voting closed Sunday night, officials said turnout was high, despite an approaching typhoon, indicating the intense level of public interest the hotly contested campaigns have generated.

The loss by the Liberal Democrats would open the way for the Democratic Party of Japan, headed by Yukio Hatoyama, to oust Prime Minister Taro Aso and establish a new Cabinet, possibly within the next few weeks.

It would also smooth policy debates in parliament, which has been deadlocked since the Democrats and their allies took over the less powerful upper house in 2007.

"The ruling party has betrayed the people over the past four years, driving the economy to the edge of a cliff, building up more than 6 trillion yen ($64.1 billion) in public debt, wasting money, ruining our social security net and widening the gap between the rich and poor," the Democratic Party said in a statement as voting began Sunday.

"We will change Japan," it said.
The Democrats have also said they will make Tokyo's diplomacy less U.S.-centric. But Hatoyama, who holds a doctorate in engineering from Stanford University, insists he will not seek dramatic change in Japan's foreign policy, saying the U.S.-Japan alliance would "continue to be the cornerstone of Japanese diplomatic policy."

Hatoyama's party held 112 seats before parliament was dissolved in July. The Democratic Party would only need to win a simple majority of 241 seats in the lower house to assure that it can name the next prime minister.

"We don't know if the Democrats can really make a difference, but we want to give them a chance," Junko Shinoda, 59, a government employee, said after voting at a crowded polling center in downtown Tokyo.

With only two weeks of official campaigning that focused mainly on broadstroke appeals rather than specific policies, many analysts said the elections were not so much about issues as voters' general desire for something new after more than a half century under the Liberal Democrats.

The Democrats are proposing toll-free highways, free high schools, income support for farmers, monthly allowances for job seekers in training, a higher minimum wage and tax cuts. The estimated bill comes to 16.8 trillion yen ($179 billion) if fully implemented starting in fiscal year 2013.

Aso - whose own support ratings have sagged to a dismal 20 percent - repeatedly stressed his party led Japan's rise from the ashes of World War II into one of the world's biggest economic powers and are best equipped to get it out of its current morass.

But the current state of the economy has been a major liability for his party.

Last week, the government reported that the unemployment rate for July hit 5.7 percent - the highest in Japan's post-World War II era - while deflation intensified and families have cut spending because they are insecure about the future.

Making the situation more dire is Japan's rapidly aging demographic - which means more people are on pensions and there is a shrinking pool of taxpayers to support them and other government programs.

Flu epidemic starts early in Japan, WHO says

* Flu still spreading widely in South Africa, Bolivia

* May make flu season start early in Northern Hemisphere

WASHINGTON, Aug 28 (Reuters) - The new H1N1 swine flu has reached epidemic levels in Japan, signaling the early start to what may be a long influenza season this year, and it is also worsening in tropical regions, the World Health Organization said on Friday.

But circulation may have passed its peak in much of the Southern Hemisphere, although it is still midwinter there, WHO said in a regular update on the pandemic.

"In Japan, the level of influenza activity has passed the seasonal epidemic threshold, signaling a very early beginning to the annual influenza season," WHO said in its weekly update on the pandemic.

H1N1 swine flu is now just about everywhere and has been officially a pandemic since June. But, like any infectious disease, it does not spread evenly and can pop up in different communities at different times.

It has continued to spread, at low levels, in the Northern Hemisphere throughout the summer even though influenza rarely spreads in summer. And even where it is flu season, H1N1 is the dominant strain, sickening far more people than seasonal strains of flu.

"In the Southern Hemisphere, most countries (represented by Chile, Argentina, New Zealand, and Australia) appear to have passed their peak of influenza activity," WHO said.

"A few others (represented by South Africa and Bolivia) continue to experience high levels of influenza activity," it added.

More countries are testing the virus to make sure it can be controlled by oseltamivir, the antiviral drug sold by Roche AG under the brand name Tamiflu. So far it does, with a few rare exceptions, WHO said.

Every year, seasonal flu infects between 5 percent and 20 percent of a given population and kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people globally. Because hardly anyone has immunity to the new H1N1 virus, experts believe it will infect far more people that usual, as much as a third or more of the population.

It also disproportionately affects younger people, unlike seasonal flu which mainly burdens the elderly, and thus may cause more severe illness and deaths among young adults and children than seasonal flu does.

Most at risk are pregnant women, people with chronic diseases such as asthma or diabetes and, some studies suggest, perhaps the obese